Super Saturday

Big matches this weekend. We'll let the teams play, and follow with commentary/evaluation of other blogs' predictions.

Cheers

--The Expert

Williams/ NESCAC

I know it looks like I've been giving Williams a lot of hate on this blog but they really are a pretty solid team. However, they have absolutely no resume this year. That becomes a problem when you aren't going to win your conference, as Williams is likely not going to. Right now, Williams' signature win is an 8-1 drubbing of Vassar. This--if you consider that Vassar only has two players on its team capable of producing points--is not Pool C worthy. Also hurting their case is a 5-4 loss to NC Wesleyan, and now a second loss against a mid-level top 10 team.

Next weekend they play Bowdoin. The loser of this match will get the #4 seed, and a matchup with Trinity (CT) in the NESCAC Quarters. That is a huge trap match for any team to be playing, especially one that will need another big win to shore up their postseason chances in the later rounds. 

Weekend Wrap-Up

Results:

• Williams continues its streak of 0 top 20 wins by losing 7-2 to Amherst
• Kalamazoo gets back on track by beating a weak Gustavus team 7-2
• Middlebury makes Bowdoin look like an unranked team by winning 9-0 (or 97-36 in total games)
• CMS notches another 6-3 win against CLU
• Mary Wash pulls out a solid 7-2 win against Hampden-Sydney  and then gets crushed by Hopkins 8-1
• NCW holds off an injured CNU squad 6-3 with a solid performance from the bottom half of their lineup

Further commentary to come.

'Herst v. Williams + Update

Big match has just gotten underway in Williamstown. The Ephs really need a win here, because their resume is not looking terribly impressive right now. The Expert is calling a 5-4 win for Amherst. Look for it.

CNU goes down to NCW today in the USA South conference championship. After CNU won the doubles point, they got blasted in singles. This match could've been really close had Widing not disappeared from CNU's lineup. Go to TennisD3's blog for CNU's post match reaction.

No results in yet from the K-Zoo Gustavus match, but that'll probably end up 6-3 K-Zoo, unless the meltdown continues for the Hornets. On second thought, that's not going to happen. Gustavus is kind of terrible this year.

4/13 ITA Rankings

It's 3pm, and we're still waiting for these rankings. Over/under Thursday at 5 pm, J. Browning?

Top 15 Rankings

Here are how I think the new rankings should look, but I must add the disclaimer that it's very unlikely this will be what's put up on Tuesday. The last national rankings were a joke, and the future rankings will probably continue to be trash. I don't see Schwarz and Browning ridding themselves of their blatant bias anytime soon. These are not power rankings, so they rely purely on results and not gut feelings (sorry Williams).

1. Middlebury
2. CMS
3. Cal Lu
4. Cruz
5. Amherst
6. WashU 
7. Emory
8. Carnegie
9. Kenyon
10. Hopkins
11. NC Wesleyan
12. Chicago
13. Trinity (TX)
14. Bowdoin
15. Williams


These rankings were not easy, and a lot of head-to-head results conflict. For example: Bowdoin beat Salisbury, Salisbury beat Kalamazoo, and Kalamazoo beat Chicago, so Chicago should be behind Bowdoin, correct? Not exactly: Chicago beat DePauw who has both lost and won to Kalamazoo, and Chicago beat Mary Washington who beat Salisbury. To confuse the rankings even more: Bowdoin lost to Trinity (TX), who lost to Redlands, but Bowdoin beat Redlands head-to-head. Obviously, this is a pretty good example of how difficult creating these rankings can be. In cases like these, a judgment call had to be made that decided whether a team's solid wins outweighed their bad losses. Also, it's important to note that an emphasis was put on more recent results (fall results were very de-emphasized).

More Results from Today

Two upsets in the last two matches of the GLCA Tournament.
In the finals: 
Carnegie Mellon > Kenyon 5-4
and for 3rd and 4th:
DePauw > Kalamazoo 5-2

On the west coast:
Claremont > Cal Lu 6-3

This has some huge implications for the ITA rankings that come out on April 13th (although Browning and Schwarz never seem capable of getting these out on time), and it seems that Kalamazoo may not be the same team outdoors that they are indoors and Cal Lu may be cooling down.

GLCA results/ Finals predictions

Semis:

Kenyon def. Depauw 7-2. Kenyon basically dominates this match.

Carnegie def. K-Zoo 6-3. Carnegie sweeps doubles, splits singles.

Finals

Kenyon v. Carnegie: I'm going with home court advantage and Kenyon, for a 6-3 win. I'm just not convinced Carnegie is as good as they've been playing in doubles. But I guess we'll see....

GLCA Semi #1: Kenyon v. DePauw

DePauw has played one of the toughest schedules in DIII, but they have yet to pull off a big win. Could their undefeated Spring Break trip help them upset a Kenyon team that just shutout Hopkins?  Here are the Expert’s picks:

Doubles

1.    Sandager/Gates v. Brody/Greenberg- The ITA has DePauw as the favorites, but I think Kenyon pulls out the win here.

2.    Batuello/Schouweiler v. Polster/Piskacek- This is a new doubles pair with Kahn out of the lineup, but it should be close.

3.    Hubbard/ Rardon v. Burgin/VandenBerg- Another match that has the potential to be tough but should be a routine win for Kenyon.

Kenyon up 2-1 after doubles. It's over if Kenyon pulls off a somewhat likely doubles sweep.

Singles

1.   Sandager v. Greenberg- Greenberg could lose less games in singles than doubles.

2.   Piskacek v. Rardon- Piskacek has been shaky lately and was moved down to 3 for a while, but I see him winning here.

3.   Schouweiler v. Polster- Schouweiler's been steady in tough matches, and he could possibly pull off the upset.

4.   Swiler v. VandenBerg- This will be close and possibly a swing match.

5.   Hubbard v. Bergin- Hubbard found himself in the lineup mid-season and should match up decently against Bergin.

6.   Hunter v. Brody/Ye- If Brody plays, I'll give him the win. But I think the senior Hunter could beat the freshman Ye.

More than likely, this will be a routine Kenyon 7-2 win. DePauw knows that their season and an NCAA playoff birth now depends upon beating Trinity(TX) in their conference finals, so they might not be focused. However, if they bring the intensity, they do have the depth to challenge Kenyon at the bottom of the lineup. If they can get up 2-1 in doubles, it might just give them enough fire to pull out 3 of the bottom 4 singles matches. If they don't pick up a doubles point, they might want to consider just forfeiting singles and resting for Saturday.... 

GLCA Semi #2: Carnegie v. K-Zoo

A blockbuster semi-final for in the GLCA tournament. Here are the Expert’s picks:

Doubles (assuming Carnegie plays their Hopkins-sweeping lineup)

1.    King/Muliawan v. Boyd/Jadun- K-Zoo takes this one on experience.

2.    McTaggart/Nemerov v. Eddy/Brown- A huge swing match that probably decides the doubles point. CMU

3.    Miller/ Ljuboja v. Unger/Denenfeld- CMU. 9-8.

CMU leads 2-1 after doubles.

Singles

1.   Nemerov v. Eddy- I like Nemerov here, in two close sets.

2.   McTaggart v. Jadun- will take care of the mentally unsteady McTaggart.

3.   Muliawan v. Brown- This is a huge swing match & could go either way. Muliawan in 3.

4.   Miller v. Boyd- Boyd out-steadies the freshman.

5.   Spero v. Denenfeld- Spero will grind this out against a streaky Denenfeld.

6.   Rao v. Dombos- Dombos has been solid all year for K-Zoo, look for a close win here.

A split in singles give Carnegie the 5-4 win and a birth in the GLCA finals. These singles matchups should be really close across the board, and I think this match will come down to a couple points here and there in doubles. We’ll see who wants it…

Mary Wash def. Salisbury—The Aftermath

This match really shakes up the middle of the rankings, which are—at this point—complete guesswork. Here is what they are currently.

13	Bowdoin
14	Salisbury
15	Kalamazoo
16	Trinity (TX)
17	Chicago

Clearly, Salisbury is going to move down quite a bit, and they probably deserve it after getting swept in singles by Mary Wash yesterday. Outside of this obvious move, the rest is up in the air, as each of these teams is tied up in a web of direct/indirect wins. Let’s look at them one by one:

The first team we’ll look at is Trinity, who started off their season horrifically, with four consecutive losses to CMS, CMU, Redlands, and Cal Lutheran. For the Tigers, that loss to Redlands was really a killer, because the Bulldogs have basically played everyone this year, and beaten no one. Bouncing back from the aforementioned losing streak, Trinity comes out and beats Bowdoin 7-2. Now, on paper, that seems like a really good win—but, let’s take a closer look at Bowdoin.

After starting the year ranked 13^th, The Polar Bears have been less than impressive. They have a convincing win over Salisbury (8-1), and two 5-4 victories over Redlands and Trinity (CT). Couple that with the 7-2 losses to CMS and Trinity, and I’m unsure as to why this team is so hyped. The good news for Bowdoin is that they have matches against Amherst, Midd, and Williams before the end of the month—a great opportunity to pick up wins. This last match will tell us a lot, as Williams has looked pretty weak so far this season. If Bowdoin goes 0-3 over that stretch, though, and doesn’t pull out a huge upset in the NESCAC tournament, I can’t see how they would be deserving of a spot in the tournament.

Chicago is a bit of a wild card in this mix. They have some strong results, including a 7-2 win over Depauw, but they also lost 7-2 against Kalamazoo. That loss came the match after losing 5-4 to Wash U—if that shows you how all-over-the-place this team is. They were able to pick up solid wins against Wash and Lee, Newport, and Mary Wash over spring break, but that K-Zoo loss is really holding them back right now. We’ll see what the Maroons can do at their conference tournament; if the self-titled “Most Intimidating Team in D3 Tennis” can pull an upset against Wash U, Emory, or Carnegie they will have a pretty strong Pool C resume.

I’ve purposely left K-Zoo as the last team to evaluate here, since they are the ones that started this whole mess by losing to Salisbury. Like Chicago, they have had some really good results, and a terrible one. After a hot start that saw them picking up 7-2 wins over Chicago, Depauw and Case Western, the Hornets had an extremely disappointing Spring Break trip. There, after mysteriously losing early-season MVP Pat Boyd, they were forced to adjust both their singles and doubles lineups. Suffice it to say, that didn’t really work out. They were stomped out by JHU, doubles-swept by Salisbury, and were lucky to get away with a 5-4 win against Newport. This team needs to regroup, get Pat Boyd back, and do some damage in GLCA’s to get back on track. Luckily for them, they are not in the Pool C picture, so they have some time to get it together.

Anyway, here’s how I see the rankings now. I have a three-way tie for 13^th, because I can’t really see a cogent argument for any one team over another. The first tier here all has either two (Bowdoin, Chicago) or three (K-Zoo) DIII losses. Trinity has four losses, and Salisbury has five (all of which have been blowouts).

13	Bowdoin
	Chicago
	Kalamazoo
16	Trinity (TX)
17	Salisbury

Mary Wash def. Salisbury, 7-2

Wow. This match tells us quite a bit about Salisbury. Most importantly, it confirms what everyone was thinking—that their 5-4 win against Kalamazoo (in which they swept doubles) was essentially a fluke. This team is clearly able to grind out wins against solid opponents (Newport and Wash and Lee), but is really not top-15 material. In the four opportunities they’ve gotten to play top-flight opponents (Bowdoin, NC Wesleyan, Amherst, and Cal Lu), the Sea Gulls have gotten blown out 4 times, and squeaked by K-Zoo. It will be interesting to see if they will be able to take down a re-energized Mary Washington team in the CAC finals, but to do that they’ll probably need to be able to win a singles match…

Edit: Williams/Bowdoin typo replaced

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